[hot spot] Sino US trade war starts! How does the chemical industry affect geometry?

　The US trade bar finally fell.　

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　　On March 22, 2018, U.S. President Trump signed a presidential memorandum against China's "intellectual property infringement", which includes tariffs on imports from China worth $60 billion (about 379.86 billion yuan). According to the measures announced by Trump, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will make new investment restrictions to restrict Chinese investment in technology purchased by American companies. Meanwhile, Trump appointed U.S. Trade Representative Letter Hitzer to announce within 15 days the list of products that will be subject to tariff increases. The White House expects new tariffs to affect about 1300 goods imported from China. Trump also asked Lethizer to complain to the World Trade Organization about China's discriminatory licensing practices against foreign companies, hoping to get the support of American allies such as Europe and Japan.

　China launches counterattack　

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　　Early on March 23, 2018, Beijing Time, the Ministry of Commerce of China immediately took counter-measures, issued a list of discontinued concessional products against 232 measures of importing steel and aluminium products from the United States and solicited public opinions. It is proposed to impose tariffs on some imported products from the United States in order to balance the interest of China due to the tariffs imposed by the United States on imported steel and aluminium products. Loss caused by interest. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China said that the first part of the tax, which covers US $977 million in exports to China, includes fresh fruits, dried fruits and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, citronella ginseng, seamless steel pipes and other products, with an additional 15% tariff. The second part includes eight taxes, involving US $1.992 billion in exports to China, including pork and pork products, recycled aluminium and other products. It is proposed to impose a 25% tariff.

　Influence geometry of chemical industry　

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　　From the current Sino-US trade industry structure, China's exports to the United States are mainly mechanical equipment and instruments (mainly household appliances, electronics and other categories, accounting for 48% of total exports), miscellaneous products (12%), textiles (10%) and metal products (7%). American exports to China are mainly concentrated in machinery and equipment (30%, mainly capital goods), transportation equipment (20%), chemical products (10%), plastics and rubber products (5%).

　　The negative impact of trade friction is seen from the extent of sanctions imposed by the United States.

　　(1) There is a strong competitive relationship between China and the United States in the steel industry. The ranking of the negative impacts of trade protection is as follows:

　　Steel > Chemical > Other Metal Products > Paper Products, Rubber Wood Paper Products, Rubber Wood > Agricultural Products > Mechanical and Electrical Classes, Textile and Clothing.

　　(2) According to the sensitivity of Chinese industries to US exports, according to the proportion of exports, Electronic Equipment > machinery and Equipment > garment manufacturing > Metal Products > furniture > chemical products > Plastic and rubber products > food. In the event of a comprehensive and non industrial trade war in the US, sensitive industries will be more affected.

　No winners in trade wars　

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　　Jack Parker, vice chairman of the U.S. -China Business Council, said, "For American companies in China, tariff penalties against China do more harm than good, and only have the opposite effect."

　　There are also Americans who are worried that trade wars will lead to "two wars". According to CNN columnist Isdora, "There are no winners in the trade war. Whatever industry you are engaged in in in the United States, you should now experience the coming risks and shocks."

　　The Oxford Economics Think Tank has made a sandbox deduction that if Trump imposed a 25% tariff on 60 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, China's economic growth rate could fall by 0.1% this year, but the US economy itself would suffer even more, which could be described as "hurting the enemy by 800, hurting itself by 1000".

　　The trade war launched by the United States against China has aggravated the previously unstable global economic recovery. The global economic outlook may be even more uncertain, and the process of globalization may encounter more twists and turns. From the standpoint of global trade, the United States tries to balance economic and trade relations in the form of trade wars, which may not bring more benefits to American enterprises and the general public.

　　First, many kinds of Chinese manufacturing have become "necessities" to a large extent. The tariff increases will lead to the price rise of these commodities, which will certainly damage the interests of American consumers and enterprises, lead to the rise of production costs, and they will also be the victims of the trade war.

　　Secondly, as far as the industrial structure is concerned, the goods that the United States may impose tariffs do not reflect the competitive advantage of the United States. Even if the United States does not import these goods from China, American manufacturers themselves may not be able to provide similar goods that meet the needs of American consumers. The United States still needs to enter from other economies. Mouth. This will not bring the revival of American industry as expected by policy initiator.

　　Thirdly, in today's global economic integration, many products are the result of global industrial chain cooperation, even if they are ultimately embodied as "Made in China". This also means imposing tariffs on Chinese manufacturing, which may also damage all stakeholders in the entire industrial chain. This includes US businesses in China.

(source)